{"533744":"On April 2, 2025, Donald Trump announced a 34% reciprocal tariff on all imports from China, set to take effect on April 9, 2025, at 12:01 a.m. EDT, in addition to an existing 20% tariff (totaling 54%), as part of the \u201cLiberation Day\u201d tariff plan (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2025/04/02/regulating-imports-with-a-reciprocal-tariff-to-rectify-trade-practices-that-contribute-to-large-and-persistent-annual-united-states-goods-trade-deficits/).\n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that lowers, pauses, delays, or removes any tariffs on imports from China by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nActions that lower, pause, delay, or remove any tariffs on Chinese imports will qualify, including changes to the 34% reciprocal tariff, the existing 20% tariff, or any other existing or new tariffs specifically targeting Chinese goods.\n\nOnly the removal of tariffs specifically targeting China will qualify. For example, the removal of the 10% general tariff on all imports into the U.S., or a tariff on specific Chinese provinces or entities, will not count toward this market\u2019s resolution.\n\nAny action officially enacted within the market\u2019s time frame will qualify, regardless of when the change goes into effect.\n\nThis market\u2019s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information from major news outlets or government statements will also be used.","514580":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the President of South Korea, Yoon Suk Yeol, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\" \n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes\" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Yoon Suk Yeol, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.","514172":"Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Ecuador on 9 February 2025. If necessary, a second round will be held on 13 April 2025.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Daniel Noboa wins this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve solely based off the first official announcement of the winner from the Ecuadorian Government, specifically the National Electoral Council (https://www.cne.gob.ec/).","538728":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between April 22, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and April 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.","506932":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a whistleblower releases a signed affidavit alleging that ABC improperly gave the advantage to Harris in the September 10 debate, e.g. through fact-checking assurances or giving sample questions mimicking the real questions, by September 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes\", the affidavit needs to be released by the resolution date - the truth of its contents is not relevant for this market.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","1910412":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to \"Yes\").\n\nMissiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.\n\nStrikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.","526328":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Trump administration announces that the U.S. will cut all military aid to Ukraine between February 28, 2025, 2:30 PM ET and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nAny official announcement will qualify regardless of if/when the cuts actually occur. \n\nThe resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration.","519436":"The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Scientists (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2025 the 97th Academy Awards are scheduled to take place on March 2, 2025. The nominees are scheduled to be announced on January 23. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the film which wins the Academy Award for Best Picture. \n\nIf a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2025 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf for any reason no winner is declared by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film which comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g. https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","508396":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2024 shows an increase greater than that of any prior October when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAt the point the data for October 2024 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for October, and if 2024 October is higher than all previous data points, this market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nNote: If 2024 October is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\" - it must be higher.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Oct\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's \"Global Temperature Index\" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2024 is provided by NASA by February 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.","506048":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces strikes Moscow or any target within the municipality between August 27 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces is intercepted before striking Moscow or any target in it, even if it enters Moscow's airspace and its wreckage lands in Moscow causing damage, it will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","515868":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Justin Trudeau announces he is resigning as Prime Minister of Canada or otherwise ceases to be Prime Minister of Canada for any length of time between December 16, 2024 and January 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Justin Trudeau announces he is resigning but remains in office to a point outside this market's timeframe, the announcement will still qualify for an immediate \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Justin Trudeau or the government of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","530896":"The 2025 Canadian federal election will be held on April 28 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the party that wins the most seats in the House of Commons in British Columbia as a result of the next Canadian general election.\n\nIf voting in the next Canadian general election does not occur by December 31, 2025, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIn the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won in British Columbia, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).","519844":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between January 23, and April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","514548":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Daniel Penny is found guilty of the charge of Manslaughter or Criminally Negligent Homicide in his ongoing New York Court trial by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Daniel Penny ongoing trial is dismissed, ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, or results in a mistrial without Penny being found guilty of either charge, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be an official judgement delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.","511104":"This is a market on how much 'Wicked' (2024) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cBox Office\u201d tab on https://the-numbers.com/movie/Wicked-(2024)#tab=box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (November 22 - 24) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 'Wicked' (2024) grosses more than $135,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPlease note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by December 2, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.","513744":"The Game Awards are scheduled to be held on December 12, 2024 at the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles, USA.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \"Astro Bot\" wins The 2024 Game Award for Game of the Year. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from The Game Awards (e.g. information found at thegameawards.com/), including live broadcast, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","521312":"Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver the 2025 State of the Union address on March 4, 2025, 9:00 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the 2025 State of the Union address. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nPluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.\n\nCompound words will not count.\n\nIf the 2025 State of the Union does not happen by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\". If Trump ceases to be President of the United States for any length of time by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source will be video and transcripts of the press briefing.","521100":"This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sudzha railroad station located on Privokzal'naya ulitsa by April 30, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sudzha+train+station.png\n\nSudzha Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Sudzha+location.jpeg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/s7MXZ3FSQBaVkAMk9\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.","513204":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Trump wins the 2024 election and officially nominates or appoints Kari Lake to his administration by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will immediately resolve to \"No\" if Donald Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential Election.\n\nThe Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.\n\nNominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","513708":"The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic clock face that represents the likelihood of a man-made global catastrophe, maintained since 1947 by the members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The closer the clock is set to midnight, the closer the scientists believe the world is to global disaster.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Doomsday Clock is set closer to midnight (i.e. closer than 90 seconds to midnight, see https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/#nav_menu) during the yearly meeting of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists scheduled for January 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the Doomsday Clock setting is delayed this market's resolution may be delayed until the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' 2025 release is published. If no release is published by June 30, 2025 ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information released by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.","515388":"This is a market about inflation over the 12 month period ending December 2024 before seasonal adjustment as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.\n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if the index increased by 2.9 percent or greater over the 12 month period ending December 2024 and \u201cNo\u201c otherwise.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS December 2024 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on January 15, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\n----\n\nThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.","248812":"This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if OpenAI makes GPT-4 available to users as a generally available public release (including any beta or test versions) by May 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise this question will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nGPT-4 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-4, or is a successor to GPT-3 in the way that GPT-3 was a successor to GPT-2; it cannot be branded as GPT3.5 or a version of GPT-3.\n\nClosed beta or a non-public release will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official OpenAI website (https://openai.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.","519044":"If the 8th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launchpad by February 28, 2025, ET, this market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nThe outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.\n\nAny subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.","528805":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, specifically covering energy infrastructure between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nA general ceasefire agreement which covers all theaters of war will qualify for a \u201cYes\u201d resolution. \n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes,\" regardless of if/when the ceasefire goes into effect. \n\nAny form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. \n\nThis market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine specifically addressing energy infrastructure has been reached will suffice.","1707841":"This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \u201cYes,\u201d regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.\n\nAny form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nA broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.\n\nThis market\u2019s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.","1712301":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, at any point during April 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final \"Low\" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor WTI futures, the active month refers to the nearest listed contract month. The active month changes at 6:00:00 PM ET at the start of the trading session two business days prior to that contract's last trading day, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month.\n\nFor WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, the last trading day is defined as three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day), consistent with CME contract specifications.\n\nOnly prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth.\n\nPrices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.\n\nIf the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIn the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Pyth \u2014 specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures \"Low\" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.\n\nHistorical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the \"t=\" parameter.\n\nIf the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.","512861":"This is a market on how much 'Moana 2' (2024) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cBox Office\u201d tab on https://the-numbers.com/movie/Moana-2-(2024)#tab=summary will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (November 27 - December 1) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 'Moana 2' (2024) grosses more than $180,000,000 on its 5-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPlease note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 5-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by December 9, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.","516113":"This is a market on how much 'Nosferatu' (2024) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cBox Office\u201d tab on https://the-numbers.com/movie/Nosferatu-(2024)#tab=summary will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (December 25 - December 29) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 'Nosferatu' (2024) grosses more than $30,000,000 on its 5-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPlease note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by January 6, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.","504649":"This is a market on how much 'It Ends with Us' (2024) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3818881793/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (August 9 - 11) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 'It Ends with Us' (2024) grosses less than $40,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPlease note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo numbers under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by August 19, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.","526837":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP \"Advance Estimate\" for Q1 2025, scheduled for release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on April 30, 2025, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.\n\nOnly the first available GDP report labeled as the \"Advance Estimate\" will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.","510053":"This market refers to the CNN release of the National Election Pool exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election conducted by Edison research. \n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d Donald Trump's share of voters without a college degree is 55% or greater in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the CNN release of the Edison research exit poll. If CNN does not release the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll by November 10, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, the polling numbers from the CBS release of the National Election Pool will be used. If CBS also has not released the poll, alternate releases of the of the National Election Pool will be used. If the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election is not conducted/released by November 20, 2024, 12:00 PM, or if the poll does not provide data on voters without a college degree this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the full release of the Election Pool Exit Poll data from CNN. Initial or incomplete data will not be considered.\n\nNote: Slight changes in terminology used by the poll will not affect resolution.","510049":"This market refers to the CNN release of the National Election Pool exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election conducted by Edison research. \n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cHarris\u201d if Kamala Harris wins a greater share of white female voters than Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election. \n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cTrump\u201d if Donald Trump wins a greater share of white female voters than Kamala Harris in the 2024 US presidential election. \n\nThis market will resolve to 50-50 if neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris win the plurality of white female voters in the 2024 US presidential election. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the CNN release of the Edison research exit poll. If CNN does not release the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll by November 10, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, the polling numbers from the CBS release of the National Election Pool will be used. If CBS also has not released the poll, alternate releases of the of the National Election Pool will be used. If the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election is not conducted/released by November 20, 2024, 12:00 PM, or if the poll does not provide data on white female voters this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the full release of the Election Pool Exit Poll data from CNN. Initial or incomplete data will not be considered.\n\nNote: Slight changes in terminology used by the poll will not affect resolution.","514893":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a coin other than POPCAT, GOAT, PNUT, BRETT, NEIRO, or CHILLGUY is the next coin Coinbase announces on X that it will support in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Coinbase does not announce on X that it will support a new coin n the U.S. between December 10, 2024, 3:30 PM ET and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nThe resolution source is the X account https://x.com/CoinbaseAssets - blog updates won't be considered. This market will resolve based on whichever asset is announced by @CoinbaseAssets first, regardless of the actual listing time. Note that announcements such as \"Coinbase will add support for X\" will suffice for this market, however announcements about coins being added to the roadmap will not.\n\nIf multiple assets are announced in the same tweet, this market will resolve based on whichever comes first alphabetically. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Coinbase Assets X account (https://x.com/CoinbaseAssets), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","513529":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the booster for the seventh Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during it's landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.\n\nThis market pertains to the seventh Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the seventh Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the seventh launch, and this market will stay open until the seventh launch has occurred. If the seventh launch has not occurred by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.","517989":"This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if there are no active fires (<100% contained) over 10 acres in Los Angeles county in California at any point between January 8, and January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Pacific Time). Otherwise this market will resolve to \u201cNo.\u201d\n\nThe resolution source is official updates from https://www.fire.ca.gov/. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","506869":"Former CEO of Alameda Research Caroline Ellison is scheduled to be sentenced on September 24, 2024 (see https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/09/11/former-ftx-executive-caroline-ellisons-sentencing-hearing-set-for-sept-24/).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ellison is sentenced to spend any time in custody of a jail or prison, as part of \"United States of America v. Caroline Ellison\", by December 31, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2024 ET this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence passed in this case, regardless of appeals. If the first sentencing in this case does not include jail or prison time, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","510733":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the crypto token Dogwifhat ($WIF) is listed for spot purchase on Coinbase by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be Coinbase, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","501149":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if CZ is sentenced to between 18 months (inclusive) and 24 months (exclusive) in prison, as part of the ongoing case 'United States v. Changpeng Zhao', by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the sentencing is expressed in days by the court, one month will be considered equivalent to 30 days for the purposes of this market. \n\nThis market will resolve based on the first sentence rendered by the court regarding CZ's present trial.\n\nThe market pertains to the actual time to be served in his sentence\u2014if he is given concurrent sentences, the longest one is used. If he is given consecutive sentences, the sum of their lengths is used.\n\nIf no sentence is rendered by Dec 31, 2024, this market group will resolve to the bottom bracket (>6 months).","525525":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there have been 300 or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2025 according to the CDC case counter by March 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.\n\nNote: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.","506193":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if former US representative Liz Cheney announces that she will vote for, endorses, or otherwise supports Kamala Harris to be President of the United States between August 29 and November 4, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be statements or official information from Liz Cheney or one of her representatives.","526842":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US Federal Reserve increases the amount of securities it holds outright week over week by April 30, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nRelevant information is typically released every Thursday for the Wednesday preceding it.\n\nThis market will resolve according to information as it stands on the chart at any point, regardless of whether a datapoint is later revised down, unless a point that shows up is an obvious error.\n\nThis market's primary resolution source will be information from the St. Louis Fed's \"Assets: Securities Held Outright: U.S. Treasury Securities: Wednesday Level (WSHOTSL)\" chart, found here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WSHOTSL","502038":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hunter Biden receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve by his father President Joseph Biden, before the time the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes\", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term. If it becomes impossible for Joseph Biden issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","505566":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump is a guest on any \"The Joe Rogan Experience\" podcast episode between August 20 and November 4, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be Spotify, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","503330":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2024 shows an increase greater than that of any prior July when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAt the point the data for July 2024 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for July, and if 2024 July is higher than all previous data points, this market will resolve to \"Yes.\"\n\nNote: If 2024 July is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\" - it must be higher.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Jul\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's \"Global Temperature Index\" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2024 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.","508746":"This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if, according to the ISW map, Russia controls the intersection of Zaporizkyi prospekt (H-15) and Minska vulytsia in Kurakhove Ukraine by November 30, 2024 at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if the intersection where the roads meet is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nOnce Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIntersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/kurakhove+intersection.png\n\nKurakhove Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/kurakhove+location.jpeg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/5RiWB9CBKnjC6hzt5\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.","512598":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Trump Administration (including any federal court) publicly releases any previously classified, sealed or unreleased files pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein which contain names of Epstein's associates by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAnnouncements of declassifications or releases that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","520342":"This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if the listed company/organization runs one or more advertisements during the national broadcast of Super Bowl LIX on Fox, scheduled for February 9, 2025, at 6:30 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo.\u201d\n\nIf an advertisement is co-funded or co-branded by multiple companies, all listed companies involved will count as having advertised.\n\nAny brand which is at least 50% owned by a listed company will count for the parent company, such or Beats for Apple. \n\nIf this game is delayed or postponed past February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nThe advertisement must air between kickoff and the final whistle to qualify.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the National Broadcast of Super Bowl LIX on Fox, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","518074":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if President of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol is arrested between January 9, and January 17, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","514822":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Liz Cheney receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve by Joseph Biden, before the time the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes\", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term. If it becomes impossible for Joseph Biden issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","515970":"It was reported on Dec 18 that some lawmakers are not happy with the fact that the continuing resolution (CR) includes a pay bump (see https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/12/18/congress/congress-pay-raise-increase-00195089).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if congress's pay raise is removed from the CR, i.e. language blocking a congressional pay raise is restored, by December 20, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThis market will resolve based on whether the language is re-added in the CR at any point, regardless of if the CR eventually passes or not.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be the text of the CR, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","532034":"This market will resolve \"Yes\" if Donald Trump signs an executive order on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nExecutive actions will not qualify toward this market\u2019s resolution.\n\nThis market will immediately resolve \"Yes\" if the text of an executive order for the given day is published on the White House page for presidential actions (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/) or the White House press pool. Mere announcements will not qualify.\n\nIf no executive order is published by 12:00 PM ET the day after the listed date of this market, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d\n\nIn the case of ambiguity this market will use the federal register as the resolution source (https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders).","505466":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Trump wins the 2024 election and nominates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for a Cabinet position by January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will immediately resolve to \"No\" if Donald Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential Election.\n\nA Cabinet position is defined as any of the heads of the 15 executive departments or a role formally designated as Cabinet-level by the President. Advisory roles will not qualify for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","502710":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a preponderance of evidence suggests that Barron Trump was involved in the creation of the Solana token $DJT. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".  \n\nDetermination as to whether Barron was involved in the creation of $DJT will be made by this market's decentralized resolver, UMA, and will take into account all available evidence as of 12 PM ET, June 23.","519286":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action enacting a general 25% or greater tariff on imports in to the United States from Mexico and Canada by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 25% or greater tariff on imports in to the United States from Mexico and Canada is enacted.\n\nAny tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.\n\nThis market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.","247266":"This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States unseals or otherwise officially announces a criminal indictment of former President Donald Trump before the resolution time March 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. \nOtherwise, it will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nPlease note, for purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.\nNote also, that an indictment that has been issued before the resolution time but remains sealed or otherwise secret at the resolution time will not be considered in this market.","252626":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if credible evidence surfaces indicating that Israeli intelligence agencies or the Israeli government had foreknowledge of a specific attack by Hamas, linked to the October 7 attack, and took no action to prevent it by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe evidence must unequivocally demonstrate that the Israeli government or intelligence apparatus had substantial and specific information about an attack by Hamas prior to its occurrence and deliberately chose not to act. Generic or vague alerts, warnings, or intelligence without direct link to the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas will not be considered sufficient for this market's resolution.\n\nThis market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","252682":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if by October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (UTC +3), Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza. A \"major ground offensive\" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves greater than 1000 Israeli ground forces, and does not include smaller raids or special operations. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThe market will resolve to \"No\" if no such major ground offensive takes place in Gaza by the Israeli forces by October 31. If the event occurs before the expiry date, the market will resolve immediately.","519646":"This market will resolve according to how much \u201cCaptain America: Brave New World\u201d' (2025) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cBox Office\u201d https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Captain-America-Brave-New-World-(2025)#tab=summary will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (February 14 - 16) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nPlease note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by March 3, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.","251254":"Javier Gerardo Milei is seeking election to the presidency in the 2023 Argentine general election, currently scheduled to take place on October 22, 2023.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Javier Milei wins the 2023 Argentine presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Argentine government (e.g. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/interior/dine), however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.","509238":"This is a market on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for October 2024.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in the Table A-15 for the month in question.\n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d, if the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States for October 2024 is more than 4.1%, otherwise it will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nThe next data release is scheduled for November 1, 2024, 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (e.g. if unemployment is 4.2%, this market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d, if it is 4.1%, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d).","510402":"This is a market on how much 'Venom: The Last Dance' (2024) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cBox Office\u201d tab on https://the-numbers.com/movie/Venom-The-Last-Dance-(2024)#tab=box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (October 25 - 27) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 'Venom: The Last Dance' (2024) grosses more than $70,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPlease note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.","518430":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump issues any executive order on January 20, 2025, ET, that aims to regulate, restrict, promote, or otherwise directly address the use, trading, or legal status of cryptocurrencies or blockchain technology including crypto accounting requirements for banks and 'de-banking'. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThis market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.","516458":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the government of Russia explicitly claims responsibility for the downing of Flight J2-8243 on December 25, 2024, by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nClaims can come from statements by the Russian government, military, or intelligence services.\n\nAmbiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Russia, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","514170":"On November 26, 2024, Hailey Welch announced that she would be launching a crypto token $HAWK on December 4 (see: https://x.com/HalieyWelchX/status/1861470499060007016)\n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if the Fully Diluted Valuation of $HAWK is $30,000,000 or more one day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor the purposes of this market \"locked\" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Hailey Welch doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No.\"","526326":"This market will resolve to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2025 when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn anomaly of a named bracket for March 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for March 2025 is later revised.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Mar\" in the row \"2025\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's \"Global Temperature Index\" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2025 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Yes\".","510902":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is between $2,600.00 (inclusive) and $2,700.00 (exclusive) per troy ounce as of the final market close price in 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source will be COMEX trading data for the Gold Continuous Contract (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GCW00:COMEX).","254062":"This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if Kanye West officially releases Volume 1 of his collab album with Ty Dolla $ign, currently titled \u2018Vultures\u2019, by February 9, 2024, 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo.\u201d\n\nOfficially released means that at least Volume 1 of the album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.\n\nIf the album is named something other than \u201cVultures\u201d but is still a collab album between Kanye West and Ty Dolla $ign, that album will count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source will be any official Kanye West/Ye streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.","505858":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is confirmed that Barron Trump will be attending New York University by October 31, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\" \n\nIf it is confirmed that Barron is attending a college or university other than NYU this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump family. However a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","520266":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next DeepSeek R model is made available to the general public by April 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nIntermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-R1.5) will not count, however versions such as DeepSeek R2 or R3 will count.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" the next DeepSeek R model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.\n\nThe \"next DeepSeek R model\" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek R series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-R1, the latest publicly known model as of January 2025.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","502571":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if conclusive, definitive evidence emerges that Donald Trump was involved in the deployment of a new token by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution for this market will be based on a consensus of credible sources.","505567":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. officially announces his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn from the 2024 US presidential race by 11:59 PM ET on August 23, 2024.\n\nIn the event of any extenuating circumstances that prevent Kennedy from continuing the race, this market will also resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf Kennedy does not announce his withdrawal or is not forced to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race by the specified time, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from RFK Jr. or his official/legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","517031":"On December 30, MicroStrategy announced that, \" the Company, together with its subsidiaries, held an aggregate of approximately 446,400 bitcoins\" (see: https://assets.contentstack.io/v3/assets/bltb564490bc5201f31/blt86aee42aac939a6f/6772966708d14f09dfda7bd4/form-8-k_12-30-2024.pdf).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if MicroStrategy holds 500,000 or more bitcoins at any point by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings.","503707":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump announces that he will create a US strategic reserve of Bitcoin if he is elected president by July 28, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official recordings or transcripts of any such speech, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","511867":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Trump wins the 2024 election and officially nominates or appoints Elon Musk to his administration by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will immediately resolve to \"No\" if Donald Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential Election.\n\nThe Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.\n\nNominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","503983":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Elon Musk is a speaker at the 2024 Nashville Bitcoin Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nElon Musk will be considered a \"speaker\" if he publicly gives a speech to a Bitcoin Conference crowd on-stage at the conference.\n\nSimply appearing on-stage, or participating in an interview will not count for a \"Yes\" resolution, he must actually give a speech.","507699":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hyperliquid (https://hyperliquid.xyz/) officially launches a token between November 1 and November 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nToken launch means the token must be publicly announced and transferable on a blockchain. If a first such token launch occurs outside of this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source will be public announcements from Hyperliquid.","513671":"MrBeast announced \"Ronaldo and I also filmed my biggest video ever dropping November 30th on my channel.\" (see: https://www.sportskeeda.com/us/streamers/news-mrbeast-announces-biggest-video-ever-cristiano-ronaldo-meeting-first-time).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the YouTube video has between 50,000,000 (inclusive) and 75,000,000 (exclusive) views as of 24 hours after being posted on YouTube. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nIf the video is deleted during the first 24 hours before reaching 50,000,000 views, the market will resolve \"No\".\n\nIf MrBeast does not post a YouTube video with Ronaldo by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThe resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel, specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. \n\nNote: This market refers to MrBeast's announced video with Ronaldo scheduled for Nov 30. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.","251807":"This is a market on how much 'Barbie' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1077904129/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 21 - July 23) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 'Barbie' (2023) grosses more than $150,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf there is no final data available by July 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.","505199":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announces that he will vote for Donald Trump or formally endorses Trump for President of the United States by October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or one of his representatives.","505867":"California's SB 1047 AI safety bill is currently being debated in the state assembly. Legislators have until August 31 to pass it, and if approved, the Governor has until September 30 to sign it into law.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if SB 1047 AI safety bill becomes law by September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nIf the bill does not pass the state assembly by the end of their legislative session on August 31, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNote that if the Governor vetoes the bill, the market will stay open until September 30 to allow for any potential overriding of the veto.\n\nIf the bill doesn't pass by September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM PT this market will resolve to \"No.\"","505563":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Trump wins the 2024 election and nominates Tulsi Gabbard for a Cabinet position by January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will immediately resolve to \"No\" if Donald Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential Election.\n\nA Cabinet position is defined as any of the heads of the 15 executive departments or a role formally designated as Cabinet-level by the President. Advisory roles will not qualify for this market. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","522183":"This is a market about inflation over the 12 month period ending February 2025 before seasonal adjustment as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.\n\nThis market will resolve to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by over the 12 month period ending in February 2025 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for February 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on March 12, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.","503283":"This is a market on how much 'Deadpool & Wolverine' (2024) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6263850/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 26 - July 28) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 'Deadpool & Wolverine' (2024) grosses more than $200,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPlease note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo numbers under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by August 5, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.","252051":"If it is learned SBF has received Adderall between August 24 and September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, then this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf it is learned that SBF received Adderall within this market's timeframe after this market's timeframe has expired, it will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be statements made by SBF and/or his legal representation, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","523151":"On February 12, Sam Altman tweeted that OpenAI planned on releasing GPT-4.5 (Orion) in the coming weeks (see:https://x.com/sama/status/1889755723078443244)\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-4.5 model is made available to the general public by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" GPT-4.5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGPT-4.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-4.5, or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-4, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-3.5.\n\nIf GPT-5 is released before GPT-4.5 is released, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","539679":"This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d  if the Treasury 10-year yield on May 2, 2025 is greater than 4.30% according to the daily values published by the Department of the Treasury. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d. \n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).","253107":"On Nov 11, 2023 Iceland declared a state of emergency after an intense string of earthquakes linked to a possible future volcanic eruption.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iceland has a volcanic eruption between Nov 15 and Nov 30, 11:59 PM Iceland Time (UTC + 0). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of media reporting as to whether an eruption occurred."}